Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Denver Nuggets Over 219 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

I expect an offensive eruption from Denver here that should carry this game over the total. It’s all about shooting, and the Nuggets are the best there is in the league, especially at home. For as talented as Boston is, they were just an average shooting team this season, so seeing the best shooting team in the NBA should be jarring for Miami.

In the regular season meetings – both of which went over this number – Denver shot 59% and 58% from the floor, so they know how to execute their offense against the Heat. There are going to be matchup nightmares for Miami all over the court, and I expect those to get fully exploited by Denver. And we also keep seeing how Game 1’s for Miami turn into high-scoring affairs this postseason averaging 231.7 PPG, so I think we’re in for another tonight.

Bonus Bet (Degenerate Only) Denver Nuggets -9 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Rest is a massive factor here, which Denver has and Miami doesn’t. The Nuggets were the best ATS team in the league this season with a rest advantage, while the Heat were just 6-10-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage. Home favorites with a rest advantage in the Finals are 7-2 ATS, and teams with at least 5 days rest facing a team off Game 7 are 8-3 ATS.

Denver is also just in a very dominating position historically, with Finals Game 1 favorites going 15-3 ATS since 2005. Add in their home court advantage with elevation against a tired and short-handed Heat team, and I think they should roll as they have in other Game 1’s this postseason.

Bonus Prop Bets:

(1 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 50.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I sound like a broken record on this, but I’ll say it at least one more time: as long as this number comes in below his playoff average of 53.5, I’m jumping in.

(0.5 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+140; Odds via DraftKings)

I just love it when Joker is listed at this number with a nice plus-juice return, and absolutely have to get involved.

(0.25 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Assists (+170; Odds via DraftKings)

This is an intriguing elevator prop at such a juicy return. Joker has hit this 8 times this postseason, including 5 of the past 6 games. If Miami plays zone again, he should flex his passing skills to carve it up.

(0.75 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Martin got snubbed for the East Finals MVP, and if I were him that would motivate me here. Miami absolutely has to keep getting monster games from him, and I have to respect his elevated level of play.

(0.5 Unit) Gabe Vincent Over 12.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Vincent is another player Miami desperately needs scoring from with Jimmy Butler likely to get massive attention from Denver’s best defenders. As long as his ankle is fine and his minutes are there, Vincent should get over this number after averaging 15.8 last round.

(0.5 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110; Odds via DraftKings)

MPJ’s rebounding is up by 2.5 boards per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season, averaging 8 per game with 7 games of double digits. This newfound role should continue in the Finals with him able to flex his size over the smaller Heat lineup.

(0.5 Unit) Bruce Brown Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

When Brown gets minutes, he gets over this number. I think he gets plenty tonight as Denver tries to run an already tired Heat team up and down the court in elevation. And if this turns into a blowout he’ll be out there leading the 2nd unit, so I see plenty of opportunity.

(0.25 Unit) Jamal Murray Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+125; Odds via DraftKings)

Another tasty elevator prop here that Murray had gone over in 4 straight until Game 4 against the Lakers, plus he’s gone over it in Denver’s opening game each series. Boston got plenty of perimeter looks against the Heat and built a brick mansion. But the league’s best home 3-point shooting team won’t repeat that, and Murray will be a big part of it.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1310-1151 ATS (+70.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.